Big Board Rankings 2008: The Running Backs
I probably didn’t explain my grading system real well in my first FF post (Big Board QBs). Here’s the key:
Name Bye Week How easy is players schedule during stretch drive Avg draft posit
See the previous post for more details. The number in ( ) next to the avg draft position is what pick they were in the round listed. IE: if the number is 3 (8th), it means that player was taken in the average spot of 3rd round/8th pick out of the bazillions of drafts nfl.com has held since July 1st.
Running backs were my 2nd hardest position to grade this year. It’s obviously time for traditionalists like myself to consider banning drafting RBs with the first 2 picks. The position was so difficult to grade because there were so many injuries and flukes last year that it made it hard to assess whether 2007 was a flukey year or a trend toward things to come. Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Larry Johnson and Reggie Bush all missed significant time due to injury. Maroney was barely given the ball until week 13 and when he did he ran extremely well. No one quite knows what the hell happened to Frank Gore and Willie Parker running for a million yards and scoring only once was jaw-dropping.
Anyway, I sorted it out the best I could.
2008 Big Board Running Backs
1. Tomlinson SD 9 B+ 1 (1st)
Slight injury concerns. Very easy stretch drive. 2 tough run Ds in 15 weeks 15 and 16.
2. Westbrook PHI 7 B 1 (3rd)
Huge toss-up between Westbrook and Peterson. Westbrook is more consistent and proven. I’ll take that over raw talent.
3. Peterson MIN 8 B+ 1 (2nd)
Great stretch schedule. Huge upside. Offense isn’t balanced enough to warrant 2nd overall pick. Injury prone.
4. Addai IND 4 B 1 (7th)
He’ll give away a few carries to D. Rhodes this year but proved himself in ’07. He’ll never dominate a game the way Peterson or LT can. His biggest point total was 28 last year. Far more consistent than AP.
5. Jackson STL 5 A 1 (5th)
He’ll dominate if he’s healthy and the line holds up. Neither happened last year. It’s too dangerous to take him higher than this. Better watch his contract situation carefully.
6. Barber DAL 10 C- 1 (11th)
Best team and system for him to succeed. I’m ranking him high. If Felix Jones steals carries and Dallas spreads the ball to Witten and TO, there is potential for him to be a bit of disappointment for a 1st round pick. If things go right, he’ll be fine. He was streaky as hell in 2007.
7. Johnson KC 7 C 2 (3rd)
Best physical prospect on an awful team. He should be healthy and it can’t get any worse than 2007 for Chiefs with Chan Gailey as O-Coordinator.
8. Gore SF 9 B- 1 (8th)
Martz should help Gore and not hurt him. His youth and lack of injuries make him a good bet here.
9. Grant GB 8 D 3 (1st)
Brutal stretch drive schedule worries me a bit. 5 100 yard games in 7 starts has me optimistic. Ds may key on him minus Favre.
10. Lynch BUF 6 C 1 (12th)
Massive off line but a terrible QB. He should top 300 carries which will put him feature back territory. He won’t dazzle you but he’s consistent.
11. Portis WSH 10 C- 2 (2nd)
Will Zorn let him carry the ball 300+ times? If not, he could be a let down but he has a history of success.
12. McGahee BAL 10 C- 2 (6th)
10-20 pts per week. No more, no less. No Ogden worries me a little. He battled injuries all last season and still did well.
13. Lewis CLE 5 C 3 (2nd)
Should get nearly 300 carries if he can stay healthy and Ds can’t focus on him solely with all that talent around him.
14. Maroney NE 8 B 3 (12th)
The Pats finally let him loose the last few weeks of the season and he did well. If they let him run, he’ll be a top 8 back. If the Pats throw all over the place like last year, he’ll be another disappointment. I may be overrating him a bit here. He’s the biggest risk of the top running backs. I just don’t know how he’ll be used.
15. Jones-Drew JAX 7 C+ 3 (5th)
Still dependable. Opening up the offense with Porter and Garrard could make him more valuable. Goal-line stud.
16. Johnson CIN 8 D+ 4 (3rd)
If he can battle #1 and confidence away from Kenny Watson, he’ll be a pleasant surprise. Monitor camp and preseason. He could move up a little or down quite a bit.
17. Parker PIT 6 D- 5 (1st)
Yardage machine. Mendenhall could steal carries. He’ll rarely sniff the end zone but if Pittsburgh is still high on him, he’ll be a steal here.
18 Graham TB 10 B 4 (4th)
Crowded backfield but he should fare well. Very consistent.
19 Jones SEA 4 C+ 4 (12th)
Huge upside if he impresses early. If not, it’ll be worse than the Dallas situation last year. Monitor camp.
20. Brown MIA 4 B+ 5 (9th)
The biggest risk/reward back of the crop. I’m thinking he can hold off Ricky Williams and injuries. If he does, he’ll be amazing. Get ready to gamble if you pick Brown.
21. L. White TEN 6 B+ 6 (5th)
Far safer than R. Brown. 300 plus carries last year in a solid 10-20 point per week guy. He’s losing 2 starting guards.
22. Bush NO 9 B 4 (5th)
He could be a nice addition in a high octane offense. Streaky. He’ll have competition for carries.
23. B. Jacobs NYG 4 D+ 4 (8th)
Injury concerns and a crowded backfield have me worried. I think he’s overrated any higher than this.
24. Forte CHI 8 C- 7 (2nd)
Will split with K. Jones and should get more carries than any other rookie.
25. T. Jones NYJ 5 C- 5 (11th)
Line has improved. Jones should too. Younger legs in back of him though if he doesn’t start strong.
26. M. Turner ATL 7 D 5 (2nd)
Norwood still around to steal carries. Horrible talent around him.
27. J. Stewart CAR 9 B 5 (10th)
Will split with Williams but may blossom into more. Goal line back.
28. F. Taylor JAX 7 C+ 7 (10th)
Don’t laugh, he still gets his touches.
29. K. Smith DET 4 C+ 7 (5th)
Huge upside if he’s the number 1 starter. Bump him if he gets it. Monitor.
30. Edge ARZ 7 D 6 (3rd)
They still seem to have faith in him.
31. S. Young DEN 8 B 7 (3rd)
Shanahan sees him as a “15 carry/game guy”. Beware. Awesome number 3 but no better.
32. R. Mendenhall PIT 6 D- 9 (2nd)
If N. Davenport can get 7 TDs behind Parker, Mendenhall can get more!
33. T Bell DET 4 C+ 13 (2nd)
If he stays number 1 he’ll be a bargain here. A lot to prove.
34. D. McAllister NO 9 B 10 (5)
Great offense will give him goal-line opps.
35. D. Williams CAR 9 C- 9 (10th)
He’ll get a few touches and still has a lot of talent.
36. A. Green HOU 8 9 (12th)
Motivated. Will be given every opportunity to be #1 in Houston. Will run behind a great offense.
37. L. Washington NYJ 5 C- 14 (3rd)
He could wrestle #1 job away from T. Jones. Fared well last year as a starter.
38. C. Taylor MIN 8 9 (3rd)
A handcuff for AP.
39. Bradshaw NYG 4 13 (8th)
A good handcuff for Jacobs.
40. K Jones CHI 8 14 (4th)
Will split with Forte if healthy enough.
41. D. Rhodes IND 4 14th (1st)
Should get goal line opps.
42. C. Johnson TEN 6 10 (12th)
High hopes for draft pick backing up White.
43. Norwood ATL 7 11 (10th)
Will steal a few carries from Turner.
44. K. Watson CIN 8 13 (10th)
He’ll be great if something happens to R. Johnson. He was an asset last year.
Handcuffs:
Hester SD 9
Pierre Thomas NO 9
F. Jones DAL 10
Betts WSH 10
Morris NE 4
B. Jackson GB 8
D. Foster SF 9
Denver’s #2 DEN 8